{
  "target": 100000,
  "budget": 1000000,
  "training_scenarios": 2000,
  "evaluation_scenarios": 10000,
  "seed": 20261003,
  "shared_latent_variances": [0, 0.3, 0.6],
  "method": "Bounded heuristic cost curve; not a globally optimal frontier",
  "points": [
    {
      "required_reliability": 0.8,
      "cost_usd": 140197.45,
      "projects": 9,
      "nominal_tonnes": 134522.0,
      "evaluations": {
        "0": {
          "success_rate": 0.8374,
          "ci_low": 0.8300383935699639,
          "ci_high": 0.8445024843295036,
          "mean_tonnes": 115796.9931,
          "p05_tonnes": 80714.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 2572.8052
        },
        "0.3": {
          "success_rate": 0.8264,
          "ci_low": 0.8188513696604273,
          "ci_high": 0.8336979562031951,
          "mean_tonnes": 115832.5292,
          "p05_tonnes": 80413.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 3033.3536
        },
        "0.6": {
          "success_rate": 0.8171,
          "ci_low": 0.8094017931321401,
          "ci_high": 0.8245546751011769,
          "mean_tonnes": 115741.4112,
          "p05_tonnes": 76413.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 3639.1705
        }
      },
      "validated": true,
      "status": "Validated",
      "templates_searched": 6
    },
    {
      "required_reliability": 0.85,
      "cost_usd": 148534.58000000002,
      "projects": 13,
      "nominal_tonnes": 136280.0,
      "evaluations": {
        "0": {
          "success_rate": 0.9069,
          "ci_low": 0.9010475844640515,
          "ci_high": 0.9124399176618918,
          "mean_tonnes": 118416.3397,
          "p05_tonnes": 95396.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 814.1022
        },
        "0.3": {
          "success_rate": 0.8868,
          "ci_low": 0.8804409920243146,
          "ci_high": 0.8928619468361301,
          "mean_tonnes": 118505.7275,
          "p05_tonnes": 90735.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 1216.03395
        },
        "0.6": {
          "success_rate": 0.866,
          "ci_low": 0.8591825966026595,
          "ci_high": 0.8725363165900052,
          "mean_tonnes": 118526.71165,
          "p05_tonnes": 86124.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 1761.51285
        }
      },
      "validated": true,
      "status": "Validated",
      "templates_searched": 6
    },
    {
      "required_reliability": 0.9,
      "cost_usd": 161727.02,
      "projects": 8,
      "nominal_tonnes": 136207.0,
      "evaluations": {
        "0": {
          "success_rate": 0.9445,
          "ci_low": 0.9398395206647528,
          "ci_high": 0.9488191047837157,
          "mean_tonnes": 124854.28025,
          "p05_tonnes": 98276.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 623.732
        },
        "0.3": {
          "success_rate": 0.9372,
          "ci_low": 0.932275136344256,
          "ci_high": 0.9417890954804243,
          "mean_tonnes": 124804.75355,
          "p05_tonnes": 95345.5,
          "mean_shortfall": 826.72885
        },
        "0.6": {
          "success_rate": 0.9319,
          "ci_low": 0.9267948231923746,
          "ci_high": 0.9366734790150348,
          "mean_tonnes": 124827.4602,
          "p05_tonnes": 94566.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 1109.28635
        }
      },
      "validated": true,
      "status": "Validated",
      "templates_searched": 6
    },
    {
      "required_reliability": 0.95,
      "cost_usd": 181658.56,
      "projects": 13,
      "nominal_tonnes": 166671.0,
      "evaluations": {
        "0": {
          "success_rate": 0.9927,
          "ci_low": 0.9908319591742815,
          "ci_high": 0.9941896488312537,
          "mean_tonnes": 144823.64525,
          "p05_tonnes": 116669.5,
          "mean_shortfall": 77.158
        },
        "0.3": {
          "success_rate": 0.9831,
          "ci_low": 0.9803818410813093,
          "ci_high": 0.9854471396929428,
          "mean_tonnes": 144932.96825,
          "p05_tonnes": 110970.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 182.33945
        },
        "0.6": {
          "success_rate": 0.9699,
          "ci_low": 0.9663665003399703,
          "ci_high": 0.9730726179912678,
          "mean_tonnes": 144958.63865,
          "p05_tonnes": 105330.5,
          "mean_shortfall": 426.43355
        }
      },
      "validated": true,
      "status": "Validated",
      "templates_searched": 6
    },
    {
      "required_reliability": 0.99,
      "cost_usd": 282130.45,
      "projects": 15,
      "nominal_tonnes": 238511.0,
      "evaluations": {
        "0": {
          "success_rate": 1.0,
          "ci_low": 0.9996160016293234,
          "ci_high": 1,
          "mean_tonnes": 213616.54105,
          "p05_tonnes": 177518.5,
          "mean_shortfall": 0.0
        },
        "0.3": {
          "success_rate": 1.0,
          "ci_low": 0.9996160016293234,
          "ci_high": 1,
          "mean_tonnes": 213751.51225,
          "p05_tonnes": 170726.0,
          "mean_shortfall": 0.0
        },
        "0.6": {
          "success_rate": 0.999,
          "ci_low": 0.9981600556125619,
          "ci_high": 0.9994567140135028,
          "mean_tonnes": 213615.8982,
          "p05_tonnes": 163696.5,
          "mean_shortfall": 7.9482
        }
      },
      "validated": true,
      "status": "Validated",
      "templates_searched": 6
    }
  ],
  "data_sha256": "de00ad3a0d0d9f7f5b31ddead836584ed89e3d90eb7c5013b0285fda8dacf6f4"
}
